2001
The First Annual ERIE Economic Outlook Conference

2001: An Economic Odyssey
The Past, Present and Future of the Erie Economy
Program

8:00 Continental Breakfast

8:30 Welcome
Dr. John Lilley, Provost and Dean
Dr. John Magenau, Director, School of Business

8:40 The Economic Research Institute of Erie: Introduction, Projects and Plans

8:45 The State of the National Economy, Dr. Barry R. Weller
Dr. Weller will begin by painting a coherent picture of the state of the national economy. He will first put the current business cycle in historical perspective. Next, he will interpret the recent behavior of, and discuss the inter-relationships among, more than 25 significant indicators of economic performance. Included will be measures such as GDP, income, retail sales, consumer spending, employment, industrial production, prices and inflation, the inventory-to-sales ratio, the debt-to-income ratio, leading indicators, etc. In addition, he will present a summary of current forecasts for the national economy for 2001.

9:30 The State of the International Economy, Dr. Kenneth K.T. Louie
Dr. Louie will present an overview of the trends in the contemporary global economy. He will compare the recent economic performance of countries and regions around the world with that of the U.S. and explore the potential impact of these global economic trends on the U.S. national economy. He will also summarize the projections of some of these global economic trends that have been made by various international organizations such as the OECD. Subject to data limitations, he will assess the impact of recent and projected global economic trends on the Pennsylvania and Erie regional economies.

10:00 Break

10:15 The State of the Erie Regional Economy, Dr. James A. Kurre
Dr. Kurre will present the recent history of the Erie County economy, examining local income, employment, and unemployment patterns over several decades. He will compare Erie»s experiences with those of the U.S., with special focus on the industrial structure as a key explanation of local patterns. He will also present the current state of the Erie economy, setting the stage for the forecasts in the next session.

11:00 Forecasts for the Erie Regional Economy, Dr. Barry R. Weller
Dr. Weller will conclude ERIE's formal presentations by releasing employment projections for the Erie economy for 2001. These projections are derived from a statistical model, developed by the Institute, linking the behavior of the regional economy to that of the national economy. The forecasts will include separate projections for overall total employment in Erie, manufacturing employment, non-manufacturing employment, and durable and non-durable manufacturing employment.

11:45 Lunch

12:30 Guest Speaker: Geoffrey Gradler, Economist, U.S. Senate Banking Committee
«The New Political Environment in Washington”
Mr. Gradler, a key aide to Senator Phil Gramm, will play an important role in the review of President Bush’s proposals on tax cuts, Social Security, free trade, education, and monetary and fiscal policy. His talk will explore the new political environment and what it will mean for the American economy. Mr. Gradler received bachelor’s degrees in business economics and management from Penn State Behrend, and earned a master’s degree in economics from George Mason University.

1:00 Adjournment